polymarket-desk

mode ? health ? last tick ?

Equity per strategy (USDC, marked to mid)

Strategies

strategystateequity realizedunrealizedopenleadsfillsresolved

Calibration (live from resolved forecasts)

weekstrategybucket nforecastrealizedbriernet pnlslip

Activity (every lead with its reason)

timestrategymarket sidepricep modeledgereasonresult

Wallet watchlist

walletnamerank scoretierflagsreason

Confirmed lessons

n, effect and 95% CI from the weekly distiller; a lesson confirms only when the CI excludes zero.

lessonstatementn effectCI lowCI highweekexpires

Current priors

Bounded: sizer 0.25x-1.5x, calibration +-0.10. Risk rails are never touched.

kindtargetbucket valuelesson

Open hypotheses

cardsourceidea falsificationnopened